1. Market Overview: Continued Downward Trend

Based on recent market monitoring for the week of April 30 to May 8, 2026, the domestic PVC Paste Resin market in China has experienced a notable decline. Transaction volumes remain limited as the market grapples with a persistent oversupply.

• Leather-Grade Resin: The average market price settled at 7,140 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-month decrease of 270 RMB/ton (a drop of 3.64%).

• Glove-Grade Resin: The average price reached approximately 7,240 RMB/ton, down by 234 RMB/ton compared to the previous week (a decline of 3.13%).

Current market dynamics are characterized by sluggish fundamentals and accumulating industry inventories, leading to a visible downward shift in price centers.

2. Core Drivers: Supply, Cost, and Demand Dynamics

• Supply Side: Stable Capacity with Sufficient Stock The industry’s overall operating rate stood at approximately 60% this week. While temporary maintenance occurred in Northeast China, facilities in the Shandong region have resumed normal production levels. Estimated weekly production reached 20,500 tons, ensuring that spot availability remains more than sufficient to meet current market needs.

• Cost Side: Rising Costs and Narrowing Margins Raw material trends were mixed this week. While VCM (Vinyl Chloride Monomer) prices remained stable—easing some pressure for ethylene-based producers—the Calcium Carbide market showed an upward trend. This has increased production costs for carbide-based enterprises, leading to a general contraction in overall industry profit margins.

• Demand Side: Sluggish Downstream Recovery Operating rates in the downstream leather industry remain low, with finished product inventories staying at high levels. In the glove sector, export feedback is average, and international inquiries have not resulted in significant new orders. Most downstream manufacturers are maintaining low-load production and adhering to a "hand-to-mouth" procurement strategy.

3. Forecast: Expectations for Further Price Adjustments

Considering the current macroeconomic environment and supply-demand data, Wuxi High Mountain Hi-tech Development Co., Ltd. anticipates the following for the coming week:

• Supply Outlook: Supply is expected to remain abundant as facilities in the Northeast return to operation, further increasing domestic output.

• Cost Dynamics: Calcium carbide prices are expected to stabilize, while VCM monomer prices may have room for further downward adjustment, potentially easing costs for ethylene-based producers.

• Demand Sentiment: Without significant positive catalysts, downstream procurement is expected to remain focused on immediate needs, providing little support for a price rebound.

Conclusion: The current state of "high supply and low demand" is unlikely to reverse in the short term. With weakening cost support and mounting inventory pressure, the downward shift in transaction centers is expected to continue. We project a further price correction in the range of 100–300 RMB/ton next week.