1. Market Overview: Narrow Fluctuations in Spot Prices

Through April and early May, the domestic soda ash market has demonstrated a recovery phase following a period of moderate adjustment. Influenced by supply-side maintenance and the pace of downstream replenishment, spot prices have remained relatively steady.

According to the latest monitoring data as of May 11:

• Light Soda Ash: The average domestic market price is referenced at 1,131 RMB/ton, a slight increase of approximately 0.53% since the beginning of the year.

• Dense Soda Ash: The average domestic market price is referenced at 1,257 RMB/ton, with the overall operational center showing minor adjustments compared to last month.

2. Supply Side: Maintenance Drives Production Decrease

Recently, the overall industry operating rate has seen a structural decline, with the average operating level in April hovering around 82.56%.

• Regional Dynamics: Production loads in parts of Qinghai have decreased slightly, and a major natural soda ash plant in Inner Mongolia has entered its scheduled maintenance period. Additionally, plants in Jiangsu, Chongqing, and Henan have implemented temporary short-term shutdowns or load reductions.

• Supply Outlook: While some previously shut-down facilities are seeking to resume operations, the overall reduction in output has provided a psychological floor for the market.

3. Demand Side: Stable Domestic Demand and Bright Spots in Exports

Currently, downstream demand for soda ash remains in a "rebalancing phase," with divergent performance across sectors:

1. Glass Sector: The daily melting capacity of float glass remains at low levels. The photovoltaic (PV) glass sector has seen line stoppages in Jiangsu and Anhui, leading to a cautious procurement rhythm centered on buying only for immediate needs.

2. Export Market: This has emerged as a key structural support. Driven by international dynamics and policy factors, export orders in certain regions have performed exceptionally well since April. Notably, the increase in foreign trade orders from major manufacturers in Shandong has bolstered price-holding sentiment in neighboring markets.

3. Inventory Status: Despite the boost from exports, overall domestic inventory remains at a relatively high level, which continues to cap any significant price surges.

4. Cost Side: Steady Support from Raw Materials

• Thermal Coal: Prices have fluctuated within a narrow range. Coal mines are adjusting prices based on their specific sales conditions, keeping support for soda ash within a reasonable bracket.

• Synthetic Ammonia: Supported by facility maintenance and export demand, prices have shown a volatile but resilient pattern, providing solid bottom support for soda ash production costs.

• Industrial Salt: Prices have trended slightly weaker with limited volatility, keeping the average theoretical cost of the soda ash industry slightly higher than previous levels.

5. HM Perspective: Outlook and Critical Variables

Based on fundamental factors, Wuxi High Mountain Hi-tech Development Co., Ltd. anticipates that the soda ash market will continue its trend of narrow-range consolidation in the short term:

• Bullish Factors: Pending maintenance plans at several soda ash plants may provide a short-term boost to market sentiment in specific regions, with the possibility of minor price hikes by individual enterprises.

• Bearish Constraints: Reducing high industry inventories will take time, and without a significant surge in domestic glass demand, a trend-based reversal is unlikely.

• Strategic Advice: We recommend that partners continue to monitor the impact of futures market volatility on spot sentiment and pay close attention to macroeconomic policies affecting terminal demand.