Grasping the up-to-date dynamics of the upstream and downstream supply chain is the foundation for steady enterprise operations. 

1. Caustic Soda Sector: Liquid Caustic Soda Ships Flexibly While Flake Caustic Soda Runs Steadily

• Liquid Caustic Soda: Today, the domestic liquid caustic soda market saw flexible shipping. In Shandong, the operation rates of downstream alumina enterprises remained fair, while procurement in non-aluminum sectors was weak. However, due to ongoing maintenance at some alkali plants and upcoming scheduled overhauls in southwestern Shandong, a contraction in supply is expected, which supported the market. Transactions in Northwest and Northeast China remained steady and quiet, with manufacturers actively pushing for new orders. Demand in Henan remained sluggish, putting pressure on local alkali shipments.

• Flake Caustic Soda: The domestic flake caustic soda market is expected to remain stable today, with activities focusing primarily on proactive order signing. Currently, production facilities of several flake caustic soda enterprises in Shandong are undergoing maintenance, while previously suspended units in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang resumed production this week, leading to frequent fluctuations in overall operation rates. On the demand side, current market buying remains stable but quiet, and although transport capacity has slightly recovered, low-priced source goods still exist, maintaining a watchful sentiment. The market is anticipated to transition smoothly through today and the weekend.

2. Supply & Demand Overview: Liquid Chlorine Rises Locally While Industrial Salt Trends Stably

• Liquid Chlorine: The domestic liquid chlorine market rose locally today. Currently, some chlor-alkali enterprises in Shandong are running at low capacities or are under maintenance, causing a continuous decline in liquid chlorine supply. Although downstream support remains limited, manufacturers face low shipping pressures and are actively pushing for higher prices, leading to a price increase of 50 RMB/ton today. Chlor-alkali enterprises in Henan maintained steady production, while the operation rate of downstream chlorinated paraffin remained low. Supply in Jiangxi remained stable with moderate downstream purchasing.

• Industrial Salt: The industrial salt market is likely to remain stable overall today, with the domestic ex-factory tax-inclusive average price holding at around 240 RMB/ton. For well-and-rock salt, enterprises maintained normal production. Overhauls are scheduled in Chongqing and Henan this month, but existing inventories offer sufficient support. Market supply remains ample, and manufacturers are actively shipping, pointing to stable operations. For sea salt, enterprises reported stable inventory and shipments under sufficient supply conditions, while downstream users purchased on a rigid-demand basis, keeping offers firm.

3. Consolidated Operations: Hydrochloric Acid Continues to Rise While Calcium Carbide Stays Flat

• Hydrochloric Acid: The hydrochloric acid market is expected to continue its upward trend today. Manufacturers in Dongying and Weifang, Shandong, ran at insufficient capacities, resulting in tight spot supply, which strongly supported prices. Downstream purchasing sentiment remained stable, keeping the market firm at high levels. In Northwest China, downstream demand performed well, and with facility maintenance in Shaanxi reducing acid supply, the supply-demand structure turned highly favorable. Supply in Foshan, Guangdong, was tight and fell short of demand, with downstream users purchasing actively. Today, the price of 31% synthetic hydrochloric acid is mostly concentrated between 150–300 RMB/ton.

• Calcium Carbide: The market atmosphere for domestic calcium carbide remained flat today. The ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the Wuhai region of Ningxia hovers around 2400 RMB/ton, and delivered prices to downstream enterprises across various regions stayed stable. Although spot supply contracted slightly, demand is scaling back as downstream PVC enterprises implement their scheduled maintenance, leading to mixed shipping performances among manufacturers. Additionally, the price of raw material semi-coke (Lanitan) edged up over the past two days, maintaining bottom-cost support.

4. Downstream Portfolio: Carbide-Based PVC Inches Downward While Ethylene-Based PVC Consolidates Steadily

As a core downstream segment of the industry chain, both process routes of the PVC market demonstrated divergent adjustment characteristics today:

• Carbide-Based PVC: The carbide-based PVC market trended downward within a narrow range today. As the core futures contract V2609 continued its weak fluctuation during the night session, a heavy watchful sentiment spread through the market, making participants cautious. Spot prices are expected to edge down slightly, with transaction centers in major Eastern and Southern China markets moving lower. Approaching the weekend, some manufacturers held firm or adopted a wait-and-see stance, though certain enterprises might continue to lower prices to secure volume. Upstream facilities maintained steady operations, meaning the supply-demand contradiction persists. The price fluctuation range for carbide-based PVC in East and South China is expected to hover around 4700–4900 RMB/ton (tax-inclusive self-pickup).

• Ethylene-Based PVC: The ethylene-based PVC market is expected to run stably today, with major transaction centers in Eastern and Southern China showing limited fluctuations. Raw material costs for ethylene-based PVC trended weakly but remained high, slightly weakening cost support while maintaining a firm bottom. Some enterprises raised their operation rates slightly. Although the overall operation rate of ethylene-based PVC stays below 50%, spot supply remains loose. Downstream demand digestion is limited, sticking strictly to low-price rigid-demand purchasing, which perpetuates the high-supply, low-demand pattern. The delivered price fluctuation range for ethylene-based PVC in East and South China is projected to sit around 5250–5850 RMB/ton (including tax and freight).

HM Conclusion: Navigating Market Cycles for a Robust Supply Chain

Price fluctuations in bulk chemical markets are ultimately a comprehensive reflection of supply-demand structures, seasonal maintenance, and cost-end variations. Facing the complex situation of rising liquid chlorine and hydrochloric acid trends alongside localized adjustments in liquid caustic soda and PVC prices, enterprises must closely track market changes to maintain an active position in procurement and sales.