Under the dual influence of accelerated structural realignments across the global petrochemical value chain and ongoing geopolitical volatility, the international trade flows of bulk synthetic resins are undergoing profound transformations. In April 2026, China's polyethylene (PE) import and export market manifested a highly distinct divergent pattern: the export market witnessed significant growth, with single-month export volumes surging sharply; conversely, hampered by external supply chain blockages, import volumes registered a continuous contraction. This divergence of "strengthening exports and weakening imports" marks a phase-specific structural rewriting of China's polyethylene foreign trade landscape.

To assist partners and downstream manufacturing enterprises in scientifically evaluating fluctuations in international resource supply and demand, this article delivers an in-depth analysis of the recent polyethylene import and export market based on the latest front-line customs metrics, dissecting product structures, regional distributions, cost pass-throughs, and upcoming outlooks.

1. April Foreign Trade Data Overview: Bipolar Divergence Emerges as Import Reliance Drops Noticeably

According to the latest customs statistical data, China's cumulative polyethylene export volume for 2026 reached 923,300 tons, representing a substantial year-on-year surge of 197.70%. Within this, the import and export performance for April highlighted sharply contrasting, bipolar characteristics:

• Export Front Strengthens Sharply: In April 2026, China's single-month polyethylene export volume hit 545,100 tons, logging an explosive year-on-year surge of 484.12% and a month-on-month increase of 168.9% against March, setting a new single-month export record for the year.

• Import Front Softens Abruptly: Polyethylene import volumes for April contracted to 671,500 tons, representing a year-on-year drop of 46.70% and a month-on-month contraction of 35.94%.

• Net Imports and Reliance Metrics: China's net PE imports for April plummeted to a mere 126,400 tons, logging a sharp year-on-year drop of 89.16%; concurrently, import reliance fell back to 24.97%. This shift completely rewrote previous trade patterns, replacing them with a framework defined by booming exports alongside an abrupt retreat in imports.

On the product category breakdown, the import and export dynamics across the three major sectors during April were also highly polarized:

• HDPE (High-Density Polyethylene): Single-month exports reached 269,600 tons, expanding by 185.39% month-on-month; conversely, single-month imports shrank to 257,000 tons, marking a month-on-month slide of 35.02%.

• LLDPE (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene): Single-month exports touched 180,800 tons, logging a month-on-month growth of 169.30%; meanwhile, single-month imports stood at 263,100 tons, sliding by 36.77% month-on-month.

• LDPE (Low-Density Polyethylene): Single-month exports were recorded at 94,700 tons, rising by 130.37% month-on-month; single-month imports receded to 151,400 tons, marking a month-on-month reduction of 36.02%.

Regarding pricing and profitability, the average import price for polyethylene in April hovered around $1,050/ton, charting a month-on-month increase of 10.88%; in contrast, the average export price stood near $1,320/ton, logging a month-on-month rise of 16.4%. The widening price gap between domestic and overseas markets significantly expanded export profit margins, directly boosting the export enthusiasm of domestic market participants.

2. Underlying Drivers of the Import-Export Divergence Pattern

1. Constrained Imports: Geopolitical Conflict Triggers Widespread Shipping and Loading Delays

Throughout April, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Western Asia continued to unfold. Given that Western Asia serves as China's primary source of polyethylene imports, shipping disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz led to widespread delays in cargo loading and ocean transit across the region. This reduction in arriving overseas resources directly caused the sharp fallback in domestic import volumes. Furthermore, escalating international naphtha and ethylene costs pushed overseas quotes up, leaving them visibly higher than domestic spot levels; coupled with a weak domestic downstream demand environment at the time, traders' willingness to source imported lots fell across the board.

2. Booming Exports: Overseas Plant Cutbacks and International Price Premium Drive External Demand

Concurrently, operational downscaling and production cutbacks at certain Western Asian refineries triggered tight local feedstock availabilities overseas. Because international polyethylene prices ruled substantially higher than domestic ex-factory benchmarks, lucrative export margins prompted domestic petrochemical enterprises to prioritize production scheduling for export orders. Sourcing centers across Southeast Asia and South Asia began shifting their weight toward Chinese domestic materials. Amplified by China's comprehensive range of PE variants and competitive cost-to-performance advantages, the share of overseas procurement captured by domestic material continued to climb.

3. Product Structure and Geographic Distribution Profiles

1. Performance by Product Structure

• LLDPE: Hampered by the disruption of Western Asian film-grade lot supplies, this category logged the most pronounced import decline among the three primary variants. Exports were heavily anchored by film-grade materials, with rigid demand sourcing from agricultural film and packaging plants across Southeast Asia acting as the primary volume driver for this export expansion.

• HDPE: Export volumes for pipe-grade and injection-molding lots turned in prominent performances, as infrastructure investments across South Asia and Africa drove procurement for water pipes and hollow-molded raw materials. Concurrently, maintenance turnarounds at select overseas low-pressure manufacturing units caused localized resource scarcities, leading to a concurrent contraction in imports for this grade.

• LDPE: Price hikes for European and American high-pressure lots, alongside broader overseas high-pressure material scarcities, incentivized active outbound sales of domestic high-pressure supplies, while simultaneously compressing high-pressure import volumes.

2. International Marketplace Distribution

• Export Targets: The center of gravity for outbound shipments remained locked on Southeast Asia and South Asia, with Vietnam (98,800 tons), Indonesia (50,400 tons), and Malaysia (47,100 tons) securing the top three destination rankings. Together, these three purchasing countries accounted for 36.02% of China's aggregate export volume. Furthermore, volume expansions across African and Latin American markets turned in bright performances, as overseas buyers steadily migrated their procurement centers away from traditional Western Asian lots and toward Chinese domestic grades.

• Import Sources: The top three countries supplying imports to China were the United States (accounting for 20.96%), Saudi Arabia (13.49%), and the United Arab Emirates (11.12%). Although Western Asia retained its position as the largest regional cargo source, its overall percentage share has receded noticeably, accelerating a structural realignment in import origins.

3. Domestic Registration Concentrations

Looking at domestic export registration locations, supply configurations were highly concentrated along coastal hubs, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong provinces forming the core export baseline (jointly accounting for over 60% of total volume). Among them, Zhejiang Province registered an export volume of approximately 187,200 tons, Shandong Province notched around 80,600 tons, and Shanghai Municipality logged roughly 65,800 tons. On the import registration front, volumes were primarily concentrated across Shanghai (23.39%), Zhejiang (22.22%), and Guangdong (19.49%). Due to the contraction in commodity-grade general-purpose imports, bulk customs declarations across Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces logged visible pullbacks, whereas Shanghai demonstrated stronger resilience against declines, buoyed by the steady inbound flow of premium, high-end specialized polymer grades.

4. Future Outlook: Geopolitical Echoes Linger as May Trade Flows Anticipate Two-Way Corrections

Looking at short-term market directions, both import and export volumes are projected to undergo minor corrective alignments toward normalized historical ranges:

• Import Aspect: Near-term geopolitical conditions in Western Asia show no signs of definitive improvement, meaning that arrival logs for ocean-borne resources will likely remain obstructed through May. Combined with the baseline reality of soft downstream demand domestically, polyethylene import volumes for May are expected to sit at low levels, potentially decreasing toward 550,000 tons.

• Export Aspect: As the general atmosphere across the global marketplace shifts toward quieter consolidation, petrochemical units that underwent earlier unscheduled shutdowns overseas are progressively restarting. The cost-to-performance edge of domestic grades and the premium spreads on international boards are poised to experience slight pullbacks, compressing export profit margins. Consequently, China's polyethylene export volumes are anticipated to edge lower in May, potentially settling around 350,000 tons.