On June 11, 2026, the domestic PVC paste resin market continued its stable trend. The average market price for leather-grade paste resin stood at RMB 6,490/ton, while glove-grade paste resin averaged RMB 6,676/ton, both flat against the previous trading day. Although upstream costs remained stable providing support, end-user demand entered the traditional off-season, leading to subdued trading sentiment. Actual transactions still allowed room for negotiation, reflecting a fragile balance of "firm offers but weak off-take."

A comprehensive review of current supply-demand structures, cost transmission, and industry sentiment reveals the following key dimensions driving market dynamics:

I. Supply Side: Controllable Operating Rates but Ample Circulation, with Clear Price-Supporting Intentions

The current supply side of PVC paste resin does not show significant pressure, but neither does it present expectations of contraction.

Moderate-to-low operating rates, no immediate supply concerns
As of June 11, the operating capacity of domestic PVC paste resin stood at 1.054 million tons, with an overall operating rate of 59.38%. This level indicates that producers have consciously controlled output to avoid further accumulation of surplus. Consequently, there is no price downside risk from panic selling in the current market.

Firm offers but flexible actual transactions
Facing persistently squeezed profit margins, mainstream paste resin producers have kept their offers stable to support market confidence and defend cost floors. However, given weak downstream buying interest, traders follow market trends, and actual transactions may still allow moderate negotiation based on order size and customer relationships – reflecting a pattern of "stable on the surface, softly flexible in reality."

II. Demand Side: Significant Off-Season Effects, Just-in-Time Procurement Dominates

Weak demand is the core factor suppressing price upside and remains the most prominent market challenge.

Low operating rates downstream
June marks the traditional off-season for PVC paste resin consumption. End-use sectors such as leather goods and glove processing have limited new orders, with downstream operating rates generally at year-to-date lows. Overall transaction sentiment is modest, lacking a foundation for concentrated volume buying.

Cautious procurement strategies, just-in-time restocking
Given the lack of price increase expectations and their own slower production schedules, downstream users maintain low inventories and only procure in small batches based on confirmed production needs. Willingness to build stocks is low, with most adopting a wait-and-see attitude, prolonging the supply-over-demand situation in the market.

III. Cost Side: Calcium Carbide and VCM Stabilize, Forming a Marginal Cost Floor

Offsetting weak demand, upstream raw material costs provide a phase-specific floor for PVC paste resin prices.

On June 11, the calcium carbide market remained largely stable, and the VCM market also held offers steady, with ample feedstock supply overall. The absence of significant changes in costs has locked in production costs for paste resin producers. Although profit margins are already very thin, the fact that costs have not further deteriorated gives producers the necessary conditions to maintain their current price-supporting strategy.

IV. Outlook: Supply-Demand Imbalance Unlikely to Change, Prices Expected to Remain Stable

Looking ahead over the next 1-3 trading days, the domestic PVC paste resin market lacks strong drivers to break the current deadlock.

• Demand may soften further: The traditional off-season effect persists; downstream operating rates could continue to edge lower, potentially further shrinking end-user procurement demand.

• Supply remains ample: Producers are running steadily, and social inventory digestion is slow. The supply-over-demand pattern is unlikely to change in the short term.

• Downside price room is limited: Given persistently squeezed corporate profits, further price cuts would deepen losses. Mainstream producers are expected to maintain firm offers.

Summary: In summary, the PVC paste resin market is expected to remain largely stable in the coming days, with average prices for both leather-grade and glove-grade materials fluctuating within a narrow range, while some transactions may still allow negotiation. Against this off-season backdrop, market participants are advised to manage inventory levels prudently, monitor downstream operating rates, and navigate the phase of demand weakness with stable operations.