This week (2026.06.18 - 2026.06.25), the domestic PVC paste resin market maintained a weak and range-bound pattern. Downstream buying followed up slowly, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere and a lack of significant volume extension.

I. Weekly Market Overview

The price baseline for domestic PVC paste resin edged slightly downward this week. While mainstream market quotes managed to hold relatively firm, actual transactions were generally accompanied by clear or hidden price cuts, leaving room for preferential discounts:

• Bulk Price Trends: As of the publication date this week, the average market price for domestic paste resin leather grade fell to 6,376 RMB/ton, down by 55 RMB/ton or 0.86% compared to the same period last week. Concurrently, the average market price for paste resin glove grade retraced to 6,649 RMB/ton, representing a week-on-week decline of 27 RMB/ton or 0.40%.

• Trading Performance: The trading atmosphere in the PVC paste resin market remained quiet throughout the week. Due to a general lack of stockpiling intent among downstream buyers, terminal demand continued to contract, leading to sporadic and scattered transactions.

II. Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Supply Chain Fundamentals

The overall market trajectory this week was driven by the dual pressures of a slight recovery on the supply side and a seasonal softening in terminal demand:

1. Supply Side: Steady Capacity Output with a Marginal Rise in Operating Rates

The overall operating load of the domestic PVC paste resin industry climbed steadily this week. Specifically, certain PVC paste resin units in Shandong that were previously undergoing maintenance resumed normal operations within the week, while other major domestic enterprises maintained steady production. Consequently, the overall operating rate of the industry edged up to approximately 68.73%, with the operating capacity holding at 1.12 million tons. Estimated weekly production reached around 23,500 tons, ensuring a relatively ample supply of goods in transit and stock.

2. Costs and Margins: Divergent Processing Routes with Stable Profitability

Upstream raw material supplies remained secure over the week, and the overall industrial cost baseline showed a downward trajectory, weakening its floor support for spot prices:

• Ethylene-Based Route: The ex-factory acceptance price for the key upstream feedstock, VCM, was significantly marked down by 200 RMB/ton this week. Currently, the tax-inclusive spot ex-factory quote in East China is referenced at around 4,400 RMB/ton, with further discounts available upon actual order signing. This meaningfully alleviated raw material cost pressures for ethylene-based PVC paste resin producers, allowing their marginal profit space to tick slightly upward.

• Calcium Carbide-Based Route: Domestic calcium carbide market prices remained largely stable throughout the week. Benefiting from steady pricing from suppliers, the cost pressures on calcium carbide-based PVC paste resin enterprises stayed well under control, allowing overall profitability to remain acceptable.

3. Demand Side: Sustained Seasonal Lull and Muted Spot Purchases

The terminal market exhibited distinct seasonal weakness this week. Downstream small and medium-sized processing enterprises saw a decline in their operating rates, universally facing a shortage of orders. As a result, downstream manufacturers maintained a strong resistance to higher VCM prices, keeping their procurement strategies strictly confined to hand-to-mouth spot purchasing, which left the demand side consistently quiet.

III. Market Forecast and Future Outlook

Looking ahead to next week's market trends, the structural imbalances between supply and demand are expected to keep suppressing short-term price performances:

• Production and Supply Forecast: Currently, there are no scheduled maintenance plans for mainstream domestic PVC paste resin units. Combined with the ongoing output from previously repaired units, the industry's overall operating rate and production volume are expected to see a slight upward room next week, maintaining an abundant supply and potentially slowing down inventory destocking.

• Raw Material Cost Forecast: The cost side faces a dual game between persistent margin losses and low supply levels. Calcium carbide enterprises are expected to maintain a firm pricing stance next week, while VCM prices still risk softening or experiencing delayed corrections due to downstream resistance. Overall, the production capital pressure across the paste resin industry remains relatively low.

• Demand and Combined Trend Forecast: As the southern regions enter the plum rain season, warehouse management and plant operations for downstream product manufacturers will be further restricted by weather factors, dampening any intent to hoard stock. With downstream factories maintaining a hand-to-mouth purchasing pattern, next week's demand side is expected to continue pushing for lower prices amid sluggish orders.

Summary Forecast: Next week, the supply side of domestic PVC paste resin will remain strong, but downstream transactions will be dominated by small, scattered orders due to the off-season and the plum rain weather, dragging down the market. Compounded by weak bottom support from the cost side, the market is expected to extend its downward slide. However, considering that the ex-factory prices of paste resin enterprises have fundamentally neared their historical bottom, the downward adjustment margin will likely be constrained. Therefore, the price volatility for the paste resin market next week is projected to remain within a narrow range of 50–100 RMB/ton.