On June 30, 2026, the domestic PVC paste resin market maintained a broadly stable running pattern. Spot cargo distribution in the market flowed smoothly, with traders adjusting prices in alignment with the broader market momentum, while downstream buyers focused entirely on a hand-to-mouth procurement rhythm. Although the overall current supply remains relatively loose, a bullish sentiment has begun to surface, fueled by the combined anticipation of climbing raw material costs and concentrated plant turnarounds scheduled for July.

I. Today's Spot Pricing and Transaction Overview

Domestic spot prices for major grades of PVC paste resin held steady today. While manufacturing plants maintained firm baseline offers, actual transaction pricing remained highly flexible to accommodate specific orders:

• Average Core Grade Prices: The average market price for domestic paste resin leather grade was finalized at 6,376 RMB/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. Similarly, the average market price for paste resin glove grade held flat at 6,649 RMB/ton.

• Regional Mainstream Pricing (Delivered with Tax & Freight Included):

  • Glove Grade: Referenced around 6,750 RMB/ton in East China, 6,800 RMB/ton in South China, and 6,675 RMB/ton in North China.

  • Leather Grade: Averaged around 6,475 RMB/ton in East China, 6,525 RMB/ton in South China, and 6,300 RMB/ton in North China.

II. Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Supply Chain Fundamentals

Evaluating the current fundamental metrics, the domestic PVC paste resin market presents the following structural characteristics across the supply, cost, and processing chains:

1. Supply Side: Steady Operating Rates with Temporarily Loose Availability

Domestic PVC paste resin producers maintained highly stable operating loads today. The industry-wide operating capacity held at 1.17 million tons, with an operating rate recorded at 65.92%. Looking at overall spot circulation, the current availability of cargo across primary hubs remains relatively relaxed.

2. Costs and Margins: Divergent Raw Material Trajectories with Patched Ethylene-Based Margins

Due to divergent price movements among upstream raw materials, the processing costs for the two primary production routes moved in opposite directions today:

• Calcium Carbide-Based Route: Domestic calcium carbide prices held steady today. However, due to lingering supply tightening expectations for the coming month, upstream suppliers showed a stronger intention to push for firmer pricing.

• Ethylene-Based Route: The market price for the key upstream feedstock, VCM, took a further step downward today. This reduction trimmed down manufacturing costs for ethylene-based paste resin plants, offering a partial recovery to their marginal profit lines.

III. Market Forecast and Outlook

As the market heads into July, the prevailing supply-demand structures and cost baselines are expected to experience a phase-specific shift, potentially paving the way for a moderate upward correction in price baselines:

• Favorable Cost-Side Floors: Driven by anticipated supply constraints in the near term, upstream calcium carbide prices carry a notable likelihood of moving higher. This stronger cost outlook is poised to inject a solid price floor for paste resin from the bottom up.

• Anticipated Supply Contraction: A series of domestic PVC paste resin units are scheduled to enter a phase of concentrated turnarounds and maintenance routines in July. This impending contraction on the supply side has already begun to boost the quotation confidence among major manufacturing enterprises.

Summary Forecast: In summary, while today's spot market remained bound to strict hand-to-mouth purchasing, the forward expectations of escalating raw material costs and upcoming plant maintenance are set to pivot the market out of its previous sluggish undertone. Consequently, the market price for PVC paste resin tomorrow is projected to tick slightly upward, with an expected increase of around 100 RMB/ton.

Downstream processing enterprises and international buyers are highly recommended to closely track the actual implementation schedules of the July plant turnarounds and the price fluctuations of calcium carbide to optimize their procurement and production planning for the upcoming cycle.