In June 2026, the domestic monochloroacetic acid (MCA) market experienced a weak running pattern, characterized by an initial drop followed by low-level consolidation. Heavily constrained by the traditional seasonal off-season, terminal downstream demand followed up slowly, shifting the overall transaction focus downward. By late June, despite a partial rebound in core upstream feedstock costs, the lack of demand traction kept the market stuck in a low-level stalemate, squeezing industry profit margins.

I. Monthly Market Overview: Cost and Demand Tug-of-War Keeps Prices Low

For the entire month of June (June 1, 2026 – June 26, 2026), the monthly average price of domestic MCA settled at 3,070.38 RMB/ton, representing a notable decline of 372.2 RMB/ton and a month-on-week drop of 10.81% compared to May's average of 3,442.58 RMB/ton.

The market trajectory during the month can be divided into two distinct phases:

• Early June (Downward Slide): Influenced by broader commodity cycles, the market momentum for upstream acetic acid and liquid chlorine remained weak, leaving MCA production short of solid cost support. Simultaneously, terminal downstream plants operated at lower capacities with muted buying interest. Faced with delivery pressures and inventory risks, mainstream producers chose to offer price concessions to clear stocks, dragging prices lower.

• Late June (Stalemate at Low Levels): Entering the latter half of the month, the upstream acetic acid market staged a partial recovery, sending positive cost-side signals. However, downstream sectors, particularly agrochemical enterprises, had fully entered their seasonal lull, keeping the procurement rhythm slow and confined to hand-to-mouth volumes. Caught between a cost push and a demand drag, the downward slide of MCA halted, leaving prices gridlocked at low levels.

II. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Regional Transaction Spotlights

1. Supply Side: Regional Operations Diverge with Lower Aggregate Output

The overall domestic supply of MCA contracted during the month due to shifting regional factory conditions:

• Shandong Region: Several major plants entered scheduled maintenance routines, leading to a notable reduction in available commercial spot cargo within the province.

• Henan Region: Producers faced persistent delivery pressures in early June, prompting them to scale back output ahead of schedule, which subsequently tightened local spot availability.

• Shanxi Region and Others: Plants in Shanxi maintained high operating loads throughout the month, keeping cargo supplies abundant, while operating rates in other regions remained largely stable.

2. Demand and Cost Inputs: Seasonal Lull Intensifies with Focus on Acetic Acid

On the demand side, operating capacities of terminal processing plants hovered at low levels, leaving a quiet trading atmosphere with few bulk orders. Structurally, while liquid chlorine prices fluctuated, most large and medium-sized MCA enterprises operate integrated chlor-alkali units and achieve self-sufficiency in liquid chlorine. Consequently, its impact on final manufacturing costs was limited, and the cost baseline of MCA remained heavily anchored to the domestic acetic acid market.

3. Mainstream Transaction Prices in Key Manufacturing Hubs

By late June, mainstream transaction price ranges for flake MCA across primary domestic supply bases were recorded as follows:

• Hebei Region: Mainstream transactions settled between 3,050 – 3,150 RMB/ton;

• Shandong Region: Mainstream transactions settled between 2,900 – 3,100 RMB/ton;

• Henan Region: Mainstream transactions settled between 2,900 – 3,100 RMB/ton;

• Shanxi Region: Mainstream transactions settled between 2,950 – 3,050 RMB/ton.

III. Market Forecast: Narrow-Range Oscillation to Persist Amid Delivery Pressures

Looking ahead into July, the MCA market lacks clear drivers for an immediate turnaround. Prices are highly likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the possibility of minor downward adjustments in the short term.

• Stable Supply Outlook: Plant operations in Shandong are expected to diverge next month; a few factories will conclude maintenance and resume production, while other enterprises plan to lower operating loads or implement turnarounds in synchronization with their chlor-alkali units. Producers in other domestic regions have no explicit maintenance schedules and will adjust their operating rates flexibly based on inventory pressures and sales rhythms.

• Persistent Demand Headwinds: The traditional off-season effect will deepen in July. Furthermore, as hot mid-summer weather sets in, the storage and logistics of chemical products become significantly more challenging. Downstream buyers are expected to remain highly conservative in their stocking strategies to manage storage risks.

Summary: In the coming month, clearing inventories and facilitating shipments will remain a key focus for manufacturing plants, suggesting that the broader market atmosphere will remain quiet. Given that current MCA prices have neared production cost lines, the room for further downward movement is limited, making narrow-range consolidation the likely path forward. Market participants are advised to monitor potential price corrections in the upstream acetic acid sector and manage their inventory exposure prudently.