This week (2026.06.26 - 2026.07.02), the center of gravity for the domestic monochloroacetic acid (MCA) market accelerated downward, with spot transaction prices broadly adjusted lower. Although the cost of core upstream acetic acid recorded a modest increase during the week, its pass-through capability to the downstream sector remained highly limited. The commodity's broader market trajectory continues to be heavily dominated by actual terminal consumption. Due to a persistent lack of fresh downstream orders, buying activity was confined to immediate hand-to-mouth volumes, steering the aggregate market performance further downward.

I. Analysis of Weekly Supply-Chain Dynamics and Producer Sentiments

The domestic MCA supply-demand structure loosened further this week. Facing constrained delivery channels, producers across major manufacturing hubs adjusted their pricing and sales strategies to offer varying degrees of concessions:

• Shandong Region (Capacity Recovery, Slowed Pace): Within the week, a few regional production units that were previously undergoing maintenance concluded their turnarounds and are now gradually ramping up operating loads. This brought a slight increase in local spot output. Concurrently, the procurement rhythm of downstream plants slowed down significantly, causing the regional market to trend downward.

• Henan Region (Normal Operations, Strained Shipments): Production units in Henan maintained normal operating loads this week. However, terminal downstream sectors barely maintained baseline, hand-to-mouth purchasing, which led to a continuous accumulation of inventory pressure on manufacturers. To mitigate inventory risks, producers chose to lower their quotations in alignment with the market, seeking to secure cash flow through discounted sales.

• Shanxi Region (High Operating Loads, Price Cuts to Boost Volume): Manufacturing plants in Shanxi continued to run at high capacity this week, maintaining a highly relaxed availability of spot goods. However, because downstream agrochemical and related terminal enterprises operated at low capacities, cargo shipments from producers were constantly blocked. Dragged down by falling prices in peripheral markets, local manufacturers actively adjusted their quotes downward, significantly expanding the room for real-order price negotiations.

On the cost input side, although upstream acetic acid prices edged slightly higher this week, the sluggishness of terminal demand weakened its ability to floor the market. The cost push failed to provide upward traction for spot MCA prices, leaving the short-term trading atmosphere quiet.

II. Mainstream Transaction Prices in Key Domestic Manufacturing Hubs

By the close of the week, mainstream actual transaction price ranges for flake MCA across primary domestic supply bases were recorded as follows:

• Hebei Region: Mainstream transactions adjusted to 3,000 – 3,100 RMB/ton;

• Shandong Region: Mainstream transactions held between 2,900 – 3,100 RMB/ton;

• Henan Region: Mainstream transactions dropped to 2,800 – 3,000 RMB/ton;

• Shanxi Region: Mainstream transactions fell simultaneously to 2,800 – 3,000 RMB/ton.

III. Weekly Market Forecast and Forward Outlook

Looking into next week, the domestic MCA market is projected to run within a narrow-range consolidation pattern, with spot trends remaining deeply dependent on the implementation of downstream rigid-demand purchases:

1. Supply and Demand Perspectives: Total domestic MCA output is expected to show minimal fluctuations next week, maintaining a stable baseline supply of market cargo. On the demand side, core downstream sectors such as agrochemicals lack obvious positive catalysts in the short term. Bound by the traditional off-season, terminal plants will mostly stick to small-batch, hand-to-mouth buying, leaving little room for a breakout in trading volumes.

2. Cost Input Perspective: The primary raw material, acetic acid, is expected to maintain a narrow-range oscillation, offering no explosive upside for production costs. Consequently, its bottom support for MCA will remain weak.

Summary:

In conclusion, the domestic MCA market will continue to be restricted by a loose supply-demand balance next week. Spot prices across major regions are anticipated to consolidate at lower levels in the near term, with the aggregate market price reference range for next week projected between 2,750 – 3,100 RMB/ton. Manufacturing plants and related buyers are advised to monitor the final settlement trends of upstream acetic acid during this mid-summer lull and adjust their production loads in alignment with their shipping rhythms.