On July 6, 2026, the domestic chlor-alkali supply chain and its upstream/downstream raw material markets demonstrated a divergent running pattern. Influenced by seasonal factors, plant maintenance, and regional supply-demand rebalancings, bulk commodities—including liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, industrial salt, hydrochloric acid, calcium carbide, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)—showed varying price tracks and trading atmospheres across different geographic regions.

I. Market Overview by Product Segment

1. Liquid & Flake Caustic Soda: Seasonal Lull Persists with Localized Price Trims

• Liquid Caustic Soda: Domestic liquid caustic soda prices adjusted lower to varying degrees today. Over the weekend, purchasing prices from certain alumina enterprises in the Shandong region dropped by 10 RMB/ton. Coupled with relatively abundant inventories at aluminum plants, overall procurement demand remained moderate, dragging regional prices down. In East China's Jiangsu region, trading atmospheres turned cautious due to the bearish spillover from falling prices in neighboring Shandong, causing localized prices to edge lower as caustic soda plants actively sought shipments. In Central China's Henan region, chlor-alkali enterprises maintained steady production amidst flat demand, keeping prices consolidative at lower levels while actively moving stock. Meanwhile, suppliers in South China and the Guangxi region primarily focused on delivering prior-month contract orders, maintaining stable shipments.

• Flake Caustic Soda: The domestic flake caustic soda market is projected to see highly flexible price adjustments today. Bound by the traditional industrial off-season, overall operating loads in downstream sectors remained low, resulting in weak support for rigid-demand procurement. The delivery rhythm of plants and traders slowed down, prompting suppliers to price flexibly based on their respective inventory exposures. The emergence of lower-priced spot cargo has kept a lid on current market prices, intensifying the wait-and-see sentiment among terminal buyers.

2. Liquid Chlorine & Hydrochloric Acid: Regional Divergence with Liquid Chlorine Pushing Higher

• Liquid Chlorine: From the weekend to today, the domestic liquid chlorine market trended upward on an aggregate level. Shipments from enterprises around the Liaocheng area in Shandong improved, prompting a minor price hike of 50 RMB/ton over the weekend. Subsequently, as integrated downstream units of certain chlor-alkali plants around the Dongying area increased operations, the external sale volume of liquid chlorine contracted. This, combined with the resumption of liquid chlorine intake by downstream propylene oxide manufacturers, alleviated inventory pressures on producers, driving mainstream liquid chlorine prices in the province up by 100 RMB/ton today. In northern Jiangsu, buoyed by the upward momentum in Shandong and a notable price gap caused by prior heavy freight subsidies, downstream order queues improved, lifting liquid chlorine prices by a cumulative 200 RMB/ton. Conversely, chlor-alkali enterprises in the Henan region maintained steady production amid flat downstream demand, keeping prices consolidating at low levels.

• Hydrochloric Acid: The hydrochloric acid market is anticipated to soften slightly today. In the Shandong region, scheduled maintenance at certain plants lowered regional hydrochloric acid output, yet muted buying interest from downstream factories kept the local supply-demand balance weak. In northern Jiangsu, impacted by the recent drop in the liquid chlorine market, enterprises lowered their quotations again to facilitate order bookings. In the Sichuan region, spot availability remained tight with low factory inventories, keeping mainstream prices firm at higher levels. Today, transaction prices for 31% synthetic acid are mostly concentrated between 150 – 270 RMB/ton.

3. Industrial Salt: Steady Run with Routine Hand-to-Mouth Buying

The industrial salt market maintained a broadly stable running pattern, with the average domestic ex-factory tax-inclusive price hovering around 242 RMB/ton. For well/rock salt, mining enterprises maintained stable operating loads. Isolated rock salt units in Chongqing and Hubei remained undergoing maintenance, keeping factory stocks low. Downstream users focused on routine hand-to-mouth procurement, allowing manufacturers to hold their offer prices firm. For sea salt, producers actively pushed out shipments, while downstream chlor-alkali buyers maintained rigid-demand purchasing, keeping the overall market consolidative amid stable negotiations.

4. Calcium Carbide: Continuous Supply Contraction Lifts Price Baseline

From the weekend to today, the domestic calcium carbide market extended its upward trajectory. On Saturday, ex-factory prices in the Wuhai region of Ningxia were raised by 100 RMB/ton, referencing around 2,650 RMB/ton. Following this, delivered prices at downstream plants across Shandong, the Northeast, Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi, and Shanxi shifted upward. Driven by ongoing supply contractions in primary hubs, arrivals at downstream factories dwindled, pushing procurement enthusiasm higher and prompting widespread hikes in delivered pricing over the weekend. As calcium carbide costs climbed, downstream manufacturing margins deteriorated further, sparking localized load reductions.

5. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Divergent Trajectories across Processing Routes

• Calcium Carbide-Based PVC: The calcium carbide-based PVC market edged higher today, with the spot transaction focus projected to climb further. Strongly driven by mounting upstream calcium carbide costs, the manufacturing cost of calcium carbide-based PVC rose continuously, providing solid bottom support for market offers. However, because downstream buyers demonstrated a clear resistance to high-priced goods, inquiry and stocking enthusiasm remained low, and sluggish terminal demand capped the final volume of spot transactions. Today, the price volatility range for calcium carbide-based PVC in East and South China is expected to refer around 4,350 – 4,550 RMB/ton (tax-inclusive, ex-warehouse).

• Ethylene-Based PVC: The ethylene-based PVC market registered a range-bound consolidation pattern today, with transaction prices in mainstream East and South China hubs primarily settled via open negotiations. Although manufacturing cost pressures on ethylene-based routes have partially eased, the decline in feedstock costs failed to keep pace with spot price drops, leaving overall profit margins in the red. This has prompted ethylene-based units to run at reduced operating loads, though market availability remained ample. Dragged down by persistently quiet consumption, factory offers continued to seek lower ground. Today, the delivered price volatility range for ethylene-based PVC in East and South China is projected around 4,690 – 5,040 RMB/ton (freight and tax included).

II. Key Indicators to Monitor Moving Forward

As the market advances further into the mid-summer lull of July, the ongoing tug-of-war between raw material costs and terminal demand will command a more cautious stance across production and procurement nodes. Our company recommends that industry partners focus on the following core dynamics:

1. Upstream Feedstock Cost Pressures: Whether the supply-driven rally in calcium carbide and related feedstocks will trigger further load reductions among downstream processors squeezed by negative margins.

2. Summer Plant Maintenance Routines: The scheduled timelines and implementation rates of concentrated turnarounds across regional chlor-alkali facilities and their integrated networks.

3. Terminal Consumption Recovery Windows: The actual clearing speed of spot inventories among traders and the rigid-demand absorption capacity of major consumer hubs in East and South China amid seasonal high temperatures and rainy weather.