On July 7, 2026, the domestic PVC paste resin market broke out of its previous stalemate and registered a notable upward rally. The overall market trajectory moved firmly upward today, accompanied by strong bullish sentiments. Driven by the trading psychology of "buying when prices rise," downstream purchasing enthusiasm was effectively activated, leading to a marked recovery in the broader market atmosphere.

I. Today's Spot Pricing and Transaction Overview

Domestic PVC paste resin manufacturers generally raised their baseline offers today by 100 – 200 RMB/ton, driving up the average spot prices for major core grades significantly:

• Average Core Grade Prices:

  • Leather Grade: The average market price rebounded sharply to 6,634 RMB/ton, surging by 155 RMB/ton or 2.39% compared to the previous trading day.

  • Glove Grade: The average market price climbed simultaneously to 6,778 RMB/ton, up by 129 RMB/ton or 1.94% from the prior session.

• Regional Mainstream Pricing (Delivered with Tax & Freight Included):

  • Glove Grade: Referenced around 6,875 RMB/ton in East China, 6,900 RMB/ton in South China, and 6,775 RMB/ton in North China.

  • Leather Grade: Averaged around 6,750 RMB/ton in East China, 6,775 RMB/ton in South China, and 6,600 RMB/ton in North China.

II. Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Supply Chain Fundamentals

1. Supply Side: Maintenance Recovery Leads to Ample Spot Availability

The overall operating loads of domestic PVC paste resin enterprises picked up today. Total operational industry capacity reached 1.244 million tons, which pushed the industry-wide operating rate up to 70.08%. With several regional plants successfully wrapping up their previous maintenance cycles, aggregate production loads stabilized at around 70%, keeping spot cargo availability relatively relaxed in primary distribution hubs.

2. Costs and Margins: Stable Feedstocks Support Decent Processing Margins

The upstream raw material supply chain ran smoothly today, injecting a balanced and moderate cost foundation for paste resin processors:

• Calcium Carbide-Based Route: Domestic calcium carbide prices edged down slightly within a narrow range, which partially eased manufacturing cost pressures for calcium carbide-based lines and allowed processors to maintain decent profit margins.

• Ethylene-Based Route: Market offers for upstream Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) held steady today. Ethylene-based paste resin facilities faced no immediate cost pressures, allowing previously squeezed profit margins to undergo a gradual recovery.

3. Demand Side: Step-by-Step Restocking Resumes as Buying Sentiment Warms Up

Following a prolonged period of consumption, downstream end-manufacturers faced an objective need for routine restocks. As the upward pricing trend became firmly established today, downstream buyers demonstrated a strong willingness to chase the rising market, resulting in a significantly faster pace of market inquiries and order bookings compared to last week.

III. Market Forecast and Outlook

Looking into tomorrow and the short-term horizon, the domestic PVC paste resin market still carries strong upward inertia:

• Impending Turnarounds to Support Prices: With a series of paste resin production units scheduled to enter concentrated maintenance turnarounds in the near future, market output faces a strong expectation of contraction. This impending contraction on the supply side has greatly boosted the quotation confidence of manufacturing plants, keeping their pricing strategies firm and aggressive.

• Bullish Atmosphere Set to Extend: Backed by the overlapping combination of downstream restocking demands and upcoming plant maintenance, the current bullish sentiment in the market is highly unlikely to dissolve in the near term.

Summary:

In conclusion, the short-term balance of the market has tilted toward supply contraction expectations and demand-side restocking. Consequently, the market price for PVC paste resin tomorrow is projected to extend its upward rally, with an expected increase ranging between 50 – 100 RMB/ton.