During the week of July 3 to July 9, 2026, the domestic polyvinyl chloride (PVC) paste resin market maintained its firm upward momentum, bringing a slight improvement to the aggregate trading atmosphere. Driven by the fluctuating trajectory of raw material calcium carbide and paired with relatively low spot inventories held by manufacturers, pricing confidence among supply plants was notably reinforced. As production costs turned lower following an initial rise in key feedstocks, overall manufacturing margins across the industry underwent a gradual recovery.

I. Weekly Spot Price Overview: Notable Gains with Firm Offer Prices

By the close of the week, mainstream weekly average transaction prices for China's two primary grades of PVC paste resin recorded clear increases:

• Leather Grade: The average spot market price climbed to 6,707 RMB/ton, marking a strong single-day increase of 228 RMB/ton and a weekly gain of 3.52%.

• Glove Grade: The average spot market price surged simultaneously to 6,821 RMB/ton, up by 172 RMB/ton from the prior session and representing a weekly increase of 2.59%.

The market's transaction focus moved up consistently throughout the week. Mainstream domestic PVC paste resin enterprises raised their ex-factory quotations by 50 – 200 RMB/ton. Order feedback remained decent, with most manufacturing plants reporting forward bookings booked out for the next 10 to 15 days, indicating an ideal shipping queue.

II. Analysis of Weekly Supply Chain Fundamentals

1. Supply Side: Operational Capacities Steady with Ample Availability

Domestic operational capacity for PVC paste resin held flat at 1.244 million tons this week, pushing the industry-wide operating rate to 70.10%, with an estimated weekly output of around 23,900 tons. Production lines that were previously undergoing turnarounds have fully returned to routine operations, and other mainstream units maintained stable output. In terms of absolute volume, the aggregate spot supply in the market remained relatively relaxed.

2. Costs and Margins: Diverging Cost Feeds Expand Processing Margins

• Calcium Carbide-Based Route: The upstream calcium carbide market demonstrated a volatile path this week, climbing initially before reversing lower. As ex-factory carbide offers adjusted downward towards the end of the week, the cost-side support for calcium carbide-based paste resin weakened. However, this downward adjustment in feedstock expenses simultaneously lowered overall manufacturing costs, allowing processing profit margins to expand to a more可观 level.

• Ethylene-Based Route: Ex-factory prices for upstream Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) remained highly stable this week. Current spot offers in East China refer around 4,200 RMB/ton (tax-inclusive, on a cash basis), with volume discounts still available for bulk orders. This steady feedstock baseline kept the cost track for ethylene-based paste resin balanced and its processing funds secure, helping margins recover step by step.

3. Demand Side: Restocking Mixed with Seasonal Inertia

Spurred by the trading psychology of "buying when prices rise," market inquiries and spot bookings showed a moderate pickup this week. Nevertheless, constrained by the traditional mid-summer lull, downstream processing plants generally stuck to a hand-to-mouth procurement rhythm. Massive or concentrated restocks have not yet broken out, and the export market ran quietly, keeping the broader supply-demand dynamic in a state of balanced negotiation.

III. Market Forecast and Forward Outlook

Looking into next week, the domestic PVC paste resin market will continue to navigate the tension between upcoming plant maintenance expectations and seasonal consumption lulls:

• Supply Outlook: Current data shows very few paste resin facilities scheduled for maintenance next week. Industry operating rates are expected to remain steady, ensuring adequate spot cargo availability without immediate supply strains.

• Feedstock Outlook: Due to concurrent turnarounds in broader downstream PVC sectors and isolated load reductions from plants resisting high-priced raw materials, calcium carbide prices are expected to hold largely stable. Meanwhile, VCM offers have approached production cost lines, strengthening producers' intentions to hold quotes firm. This indicates that paste resin cost structures will remain stable, offering a reliable floor for spot prices.

• Demand Outlook: The probability of a large-scale release of downstream demand next week remains low, and routine orders are expected to stay confined to baseline hand-to-mouth volumes.

Summary:

In conclusion, next week will see a stable supply side with sufficient output. Because downstream buyers face the dual constraints of the traditional off-season and seasonal rainy weather, bulk contract bookings are unlikely to surge, leaving the market centered on rigid-demand sourcing. Although flat export orders and quiet domestic consumption fail to provide a structural turnaround for the supply-demand balance, the impending wave of concentrated plant turnarounds scheduled for late July—coupled with low inventory levels at certain supply factories—will continue to support seller confidence. Consequently, the market price for PVC paste resin next week is projected to maintain a minor upward track, with an expected adjustment range between 100 – 200 RMB/ton. Participants are advised to monitor the execution of upcoming plant maintenance schedules and manage inventory exposure prudently.