During the week of July 17 to July 23, 2026, the domestic PVC paste resin market demonstrated a steady-to-strong operational pattern. Market sentiment improved compared to previous periods, with mainstream transaction centers gradually shifting upward.

I. Market Overview: Moderate Price Increases with Upward-Shifting Price Centers

According to the latest industry monitoring data, as of the close of this week:

• Leather-Grade: The average spot market price for PVC paste resin (leather-grade) rose to 6,897 RMB/ton, up by 142 RMB/ton from last week, representing a week-on-week increase of 2.10%.

• Glove-Grade: The average spot market price for PVC paste resin (glove-grade) reached 6,916 RMB/ton, up by 95 RMB/ton from last week, marking a week-on-week increase of 1.39%.

Producers generally maintained a strategy of upward price adjustments this week, with quotes increasing by 100 to 200 RMB/ton. As bullish market sentiment gained traction, actual transaction centers followed suit. However, downstream buyers showed resistance toward higher price levels, procuring mainly on an as-needed basis in small batches, which limited overall transaction growth.

II. Industry Chain Fundamentals Analysis

1. Costs & Margins: Divergent Raw Material Trends; Workable Industry Profit Margins

Raw material prices diverged this week, creating varying cost pressures across production routes:

• Ethylene-Based Route: Driven by higher upstream ethylene prices, VCM offers remained firm (with East China tax-inclusive cash ex-factory quotes referencing around 4,500 RMB/ton). While high raw material costs continued to exert pressure on ethylene-based producers, rising market transaction prices helped partially recover profit margins.

• Calcium Carbide-Based Route: Calcium carbide prices adjusted downward due to a lack of favorable market drivers. The easing of cost pressure lowered capital expenditure for calcium carbide-based PVC paste resin production, maintaining relatively workable profit margins.

2. Supply Side: Operating Rates Rebound Slightly; Spot Supply Remains Ample

As of this report, domestic PVC paste resin operating capacity stood at 1.283 million tons, with the industry-wide operating rate holding at 72.28% and estimated weekly production at 24,700 tons. Although some ethylene-based producers operated at reduced loads due to cost pressures, the restart of previously offline units led to a slight increase in overall capacity utilization, keeping spot supply relatively abundant.

3. Demand Side: Seasonal Off-Peak Effects Persist; Downstream Purchasing Remains Subdued

The downstream sector is currently in its traditional seasonal off-peak period, with terminal operating rates staying at low-to-moderate levels and order volumes remaining flat. Resistance to higher price quotes weakened buying and restocking enthusiasm, preventing concentrated purchasing and suppressing significant upward price momentum.

III. Market Outlook: Steady Price Increases Anticipated Amid Weak Supply and Demand Dynamics

Looking ahead to next week, the PVC paste resin market is expected to trend steadily upward, influenced by centralized maintenance schedules and baseline cost support:

• Tighter Supply Expectations: Approximately 350,000 tons of PVC paste resin capacity are scheduled for maintenance next week. As production facilities enter turnarounds, industry operating rates are expected to decline, narrowing overall market supply.

• Baseline Cost Support: Calcium carbide prices may face minor downside risks, further easing cost pressures for calcium carbide-based routes. Meanwhile, firm crude oil and ethylene prices will keep ethylene-based costs elevated, providing solid baseline support for PVC paste resin prices.

• Limited Downstream Follow-Up: The off-peak season is unlikely to see significant changes in the short term, with downstream manufacturers maintaining a cautious, purchase-as-needed approach.

Summary:

As producers begin centralized maintenance next week, reduced output will reinforce bullish sentiments among manufacturers, supported by strong cost baselines. However, given that downstream demand remains in an off-peak period with limited momentum, weakening trends in both supply and demand may constrain the scale of price increases. Consequently, PVC paste resin market prices are expected to push upward steadily, with anticipated adjustments ranging between 100 and 200 RMB/ton.