The domestic flake caustic soda (solid caustic soda) market recently maintained a steady, range-bound pattern. While concentrated maintenance turnarounds in key producing regions offered supply-side support, subdued downstream demand limited upward momentum. With buyers and sellers locked in negotiations, market sentiment turned cautious, and prices stabilized after a minor rally.

As of August 17, national mainstream offers for solid caustic soda ($\ge 98\%$ flake caustic soda, warehouse pickup, tax-inclusive) averaged around 2,557 RMB/ton, up 55 RMB/ton (a cumulative increase of roughly 2.20%) compared to early August.

I. Market Fundamentals & Supply-Demand Dynamics

1. Supporting Factors: Facility Maintenance and Pre-Sale Orders

• Supply Reductions: Concentrated turnarounds in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang curtailed regional spot availability. Additionally, select chlor-alkali producers in Shandong reduced operating rates or paused production due to cost pressures.

• Liquid-Solid Production Shift: Smooth shipments of liquid caustic soda in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia prompted chlor-alkali plants to flexibly adjust the output ratio between liquid and solid forms, keeping flake caustic soda supply relatively tight.

• Pre-Sale Backlog: Following a period of low downstream inventories, select traders and end-users stepped in to replenish stocks at lower price levels. Pre-sale orders at production facilities remained stable, easing warehouse pressures and bolstering manufacturers' willingness to hold prices firm.

2. Pressuring Factors: Upcoming Capacity Expansion and Weak Downstream Demand

• New Capacity Expectations: New caustic soda capacity in Gansu is expected to come online in September. The prospect of expanded long-term supply led market participants to adopt a conservative purchasing stance.

• Pressure from Alumina Sector: Prices in the primary downstream alumina industry hovered near cyclical lows, squeezing profit margins. As northern and southern alumina spot prices trended downward together, alumina refiners strictly managed raw material procurement costs.

• Subdued Non-Alumina Demand: Downstream sectors such as printing, dyeing, and textiles operated at moderate rates with limited buying enthusiasm, keeping overall procurement focused on immediate needs.

II. Regional Price References

Mainstream price references across major producing regions and consumption hubs are detailed below:

1. Producer Ex-Factory Reference Quotes

• Shandong: Industrial-grade ($\ge 98\%$) flake caustic soda ex-factory quotes ranged between 2,400–2,600 RMB/ton (tax-inclusive).

• Northwest China: Ex-factory quotes in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai stood at 2,150–2,200 RMB/ton ($\ge 98\%$). Xinjiang ex-factory quotes were referenced at 1,850–1,950 RMB/ton (local delivery within Xinjiang at 1,950–2,100 RMB/ton).

• Direct-Fired Pot Producers: 99% flake caustic soda quotes stood at 2,500–2,850 RMB/ton, with pricing negotiated flexibly based on order volume.

2. Rail/Mainstream Delivered Offers for Xinjiang Cargo (Wagon/Station Basis)

• Central & South China: Henan wagon-delivered offers stood at 2,400–2,450 RMB/ton; Hunan at 2,500–2,550 RMB/ton; Guangdong and Guangxi at 2,650–2,700 RMB/ton.

• East & Southwest China: Jiangsu and Zhejiang wagon-delivered offers stood at 2,550–2,600 RMB/ton; Chengdu at 2,450–2,500 RMB/ton; Guizhou at 2,500–2,600 RMB/ton.

  (Note: Delivered terminal prices including short-distance trucking and handling generally add roughly 200 RMB/ton to wagon-delivered quotes).

3. Truck Delivery Price References from Main Producing Hubs

• North China & Shandong: Delivered to Tianjin, Hebei, and Shandong at 2,450–2,600 RMB/ton.

• East & South China: Delivered to East China at 2,700–2,750 RMB/ton; South China at 2,750–2,850 RMB/ton.

• Southwest & Northeast China: Delivered to Southwest China and the Northeast regions at 2,650–2,750 RMB/ton.

III. Market Outlook & Forecast

Looking ahead, the flake caustic soda market is set to enter a phase of expanding supply and demand:

• Supply: Plants recovering from maintenance, alongside new capacity commissioning in Gansu toward the end of the month, will gradually boost overall market availability.

• Demand: As the traditional peak season approaches, operating rates in non-alumina downstream sectors (such as textiles and printing) are expected to pick up slightly, potentially releasing incremental purchasing demand.

Overall, with both supply and demand expected to rise simultaneously, the current stalemate is unlikely to break in the short term. Flake caustic soda prices are projected to remain largely stable, with producers focusing on fulfilling existing orders. Market participants should closely monitor the actual pace of demand recovery and the progress of new production capacity coming online.