I. Market Overview

During this reporting period (2026.8.21–2026.8.27), the domestic PVC paste resin market continued a weak trend, with mainstream transaction prices experiencing minor downward adjustments.

Data indicates that as of Thursday, August 27:

• Leather-grade PVC Paste Resin: The average market price closed at 6,684 RMB/ton, down 39 RMB/ton from the previous week, representing a decrease of 0.58%.

• Glove-grade PVC Paste Resin: The average market price closed at 6,916 RMB/ton, remaining flat compared with the previous week.

Overall, the market maintained a pattern of ample supply and subdued demand, with very few high-priced transactions recorded. Downstream processing enterprises remained affected by the traditional off-season, prioritizing the consumption of existing raw material inventories. Buying interest remained cautious, preventing any noticeable increase in transaction volumes. Meanwhile, rising upstream feedstock costs continued to squeeze production margins. With abundant market inventory and sluggish shipment speeds, select producers offered price concessions on firm orders to facilitate sales.

II. Key Industry Chain Dynamics

1. Supply Side: Facility Restorations Boost Operating Rates

Facilities previously undergoing maintenance resumed operations during the week, driving an increase in output. As of this report, domestic operational capacity for PVC paste resin stood at 1.26 million tons, with weekly production estimated at 24,200 tons. Overall industry operating rates recovered to 70.95%–70.99%, maintaining steady supply availability.

2. Cost Side: Feedstock Price Rises Compress Producer Margins

Prices for major upstream feedstocks increased across the board during the week, lifting production costs:

• Ethylene Route: Driven by price increases along the crude oil-to-ethylene chain, VCM ex-factory acceptance prices rose by 50 RMB/ton, with East China spot reference offers standing at 4,650 RMB/ton (tax-inclusive). Consequently, production costs for ethylene-based PVC paste resin increased, leading to narrower profit margins.

• Calcium Carbide Route: Procurement prices for calcium carbide moved upward, increasing cost pressure on carbide-based producers and eroding profitability.

3. Demand Side: Seasonal Off-Season Restrains Purchasing

Downstream buyers exhibited low enthusiasm for replenishing stock, keeping purchases strictly limited to immediate operational needs. Export performance largely relied on existing fixed contracts, with limited new orders and widespread wait-and-see sentiment.

III. Market Outlook & Forecast

Considering supply-demand fundamentals and upstream cost trends, market expectations for next week are as follows:

• Production & Supply: Current schedules show few PVC paste resin facilities planned for maintenance next week. Operating rates are expected to remain stable, maintaining steady output and consistent market supply.

• Feedstocks & Costs:

  • Calcium Carbide Route: Planned maintenance at select downstream PVC plants next week will reduce demand for calcium carbide. Calcium carbide prices are projected to trend steadily downward, offering slight relief to carbide-based production costs.

  • Ethylene Route: Supported by cost floors, VCM prices are unlikely to drop significantly, keeping ethylene-based production costs elevated.

• Demand Performance: With insufficient downstream order support, demand growth remains constrained, leaving the market focused on rigid-demand procurement.

Summary Forecast

With no major maintenance scheduled for domestic PVC paste resin facilities next week, market supply will remain sufficient. Although cost floors provide underlying support against sharp price declines, downstream purchasing interest is expected to stay subdued due to seasonal off-season factors.

To ease inventory pressure and promote shipments, producers are likely to maintain slightly concessionary pricing. Overall, the PVC paste resin market is forecasted to undergo a slight downward adjustment next week, with prices expected to drop by 50 to 100 RMB/ton.