In 2025, the Chinese PVC paste resin market exhibited a pattern of low-level oscillation, with the overall trend characterized by "fall-rise-fall." Late-year rebounds were modest and failed to offset earlier declines, resulting in a predominantly downward trajectory for the year. Prices were influenced by factors including international situations, macroeconomic policies, supply-demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. Fundamental imbalances between supply and demand significantly constrained upward momentum.

I. Overview of the 2025 Market

The market performance in 2025 can be divided into four key phases:

1. January-May: Bearish Factors Dominate, Prices Oscillate Downward At the start of the year, restarts of production units in parts of Shandong maintained high operating rates and ample supply. Downstream pre-Lunar New Year stocking occurred, but manufacturers conceded profits to secure sales, leading to modest price reductions. Post-holiday demand remained weak, with buyers focusing on inventory digestion, prompting further price cuts. From April to early May, international trade tensions intensified caution, weighing on both domestic and export markets, resulting in persistent price declines.
2. May-June: Brief Macro Boost, Followed by Renewed Decline Mid-May Sino-US talks and a joint statement eased tariff concerns, boosting confidence and improving export orders. Inventory drawdowns supported tentative price increases and short-term strength. However, downstream resistance to higher prices emerged due to insufficient demand support. Weakening raw material (calcium carbide) prices eroded cost support, pushing prices lower again.
3. July-September: Bottoming Out and Rebound, But Limited Gains From July, macroeconomic policies, including supply-side reforms, lifted commodity sentiment. Seasonal maintenance reduced supply, while prior low-price stocking tightened producer inventories, enabling narrow upside probes. The traditional "Golden September" peak season underperformed, with mixed producer sentiments and flexible trading. Prices held firm but failed to recover earlier losses.
4. October-December: Weak Seasonal Demand, Minor Uptick Then Stabilization The expected "Silver October" turned subdued, with post-National Day demand even weaker. Cost declines and just-in-time downstream buying persisted despite regional maintenance. Prices fell through late November. In December, ongoing Sino-US détente supported glove material orders (some scheduled into January 2026), prompting minor price adjustments upward. However, overall demand improvement was limited, and prices stabilized amid weak cost support.

II. Price Analysis

As of year-end 2025, the average price for leather-grade PVC paste resin was 6,836.83 RMB/ton, down 12.36% from 2024's 7,800.69 RMB/ton. Glove-grade averaged 6,870.10 RMB/ton, down 14.06% from 7,993.71 RMB/ton. Regional delivered prices (tax and freight included):

• East China: Glove-grade ~6,550 RMB/ton; Leather-grade ~6,500 RMB/ton
• South China: Glove-grade ~6,650 RMB/ton; Leather-grade ~6,600 RMB/ton
• North China: Glove-grade ~6,500 RMB/ton; Leather-grade ~6,400 RMB/ton

The low oscillation primarily stemmed from persistent supply-demand imbalances and sluggish downstream recovery.

III. Supply Analysis

New capacity additions totaled 180,000 tons in 2025, bringing total domestic capacity to 1.775 million tons. Regional breakdown: North China 40.00%, East China 29.30%, Northwest 14.93%, Northeast 12.39%, Central China 3.38%. Calcium carbide-based capacity: 1.115 million tons (concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Xinjiang); Ethylene-based: 660,000 tons (mainly Shandong, Anhui, Tianjin).

January-November output: 1.0808 million tons, up 8.16% YoY; full-year estimate: 1.1807 million tons. Average operating rate: 72.04%, peaking post-Lunar New Year, declining during maintenance periods, and lowest at year-end.

IV. Import/Export and Consumption Analysis

January-November imports: 95,400 tons, up 0.72% YoY; exports: 110,900 tons, up 11.68% YoY. Key import sources: Taiwan (China), Thailand, Germany, Malaysia; key export destinations: Russia, Pakistan, Vietnam, Uzbekistan. Apparent consumption: 1.0653 million tons, up 7.00% YoY.

V. Outlook for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, the PVC paste resin market is expected to continue weak oscillation. Supply pressure may increase with 60,000 tons of planned new capacity and elevated inventories. Demand could remain subdued without strong macro stimulus, though glove exports may benefit modestly from improved Sino-US ties. Calcium carbide costs are likely to hover low, offering limited support. The supply-strong/demand-weak pattern is unlikely to reverse quickly, with prices potentially ranging 6,300-7,000 RMB/ton delivered. Downside may be contained given some producers nearing breakeven, but upside will depend on policy developments.

As a key player in the PVC paste resin industry, our company will closely monitor market trends, deliver high-quality products, and support downstream partners in navigating challenges for mutual growth.