In 2025, China’s compound fertilizer market experienced pronounced supply–demand dynamics under the influence of fluctuating nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium raw material costs. Market prices showed clear periodic movements, while the overall price level rose significantly compared with the beginning of the year, supported primarily by upstream cost pressure.

Taking balanced compound fertilizers as an example, as of December 22, the average market price of 45% content 3×15 chloride-based products reached approximately RMB 2,615 per metric ton, up 12.28% from the beginning of the year, while sulfur-based products averaged RMB 3,110 per metric ton, representing a 14.13% increase.

Price Trend Overview

Throughout 2025, compound fertilizer prices followed a multi-stage trajectory closely aligned with raw material costs and seasonal fertilizer demand. After a relatively quiet winter storage period around the Lunar New Year, prices rose rapidly from late February to March, driven by successive increases in urea, phosphate, and potash prices.

From late March to mid-April, prices stabilized at elevated levels as manufacturers focused on fulfilling earlier orders and downstream buyers showed resistance to further price increases. From late April to June, market prices softened gradually amid weaker cost support, delayed summer fertilizer restocking, regional drought conditions, and subdued grain prices.

During July and August, rising raw material costs once again lifted compound fertilizer prices, followed by a period of stability as manufacturers maintained cautious pricing strategies. From late September to October, prices edged lower due to weaker post-holiday demand and mounting sales pressure.

A strong rebound occurred from November onward, supported by sharp increases along the sulfur–phosphate value chain and higher potash prices. However, toward mid-December, high price levels, inverted margins at the distribution level, and policy interventions limited further upside, resulting in high-level consolidation.

Supply, Demand, and Trade Dynamics

In 2025, seasonal demand patterns for compound fertilizers were highly differentiated. Spring fertilizer demand was robust, while summer and autumn demand remained relatively weak due to front-loaded purchases, adverse weather, and limited farmer profitability. Winter storage demand started later than usual, with distributors adopting a cautious, on-demand purchasing strategy.

On the supply side, approximately 5.25 million metric tons of new compound fertilizer capacity came online during the year, intensifying competition in an already oversupplied market. The average operating rate of the industry stood at around 38%, while total output reached approximately 47.77 million metric tons, up 4.32% year-on-year, supported in part by a notable increase in exports.

Exports became an important balancing factor in 2025. From January to November, exports of ternary compound fertilizers totaled about 778,800 metric tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.82%, with Southeast Asia remaining the primary destination.

Outlook for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, China’s compound fertilizer market is expected to remain characterized by ample supply, structural differentiation, and price volatility. New capacity additions will continue to exert pressure on the market, while product prices are likely to follow movements in nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium raw materials.

Although fundamental agricultural demand remains supported by food security policies, limited improvement in crop profitability may constrain farmers’ willingness to accept higher-priced products. As a result, compound fertilizer prices are expected to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, with intensified competition and further market concentration among leading producers.