In 2025, the PBAT (polybutylene adipate terephthalate) market exhibited mixed price movements and an absence of clear directional momentum. Under the combined influences of fluctuating feedstock costs, increased production capacity and gradually recovering downstream demand, the overall price trend was dominated by sideways to weak performance.

As of December 24, 2025, the mainstream PBAT market price in China was approximately RMB 9,800 per ton, essentially unchanged from early 2025. The annual average price was about RMB 9,874.02 per ton, indicating that overall price levels remained lower than in the previous year with limited net change.

Market and Price Dynamics in 2025

Over the course of the year, domestic PBAT prices followed a “rise–fall–stabilize” pattern.

Early in the year, cost pressures driven by higher raw material prices for key inputs such as 1,4-butanediol (BDO) and terephthalic acid (PTA) provided some upward support to PBAT pricing, while limited plant operating rates due to shutdowns and slow capacity recovery tightened supplies. However, downstream buyers primarily replenished inventories on a need-based basis, and overall trading remained subdued.

In mid-2025, increased production capacity and supply expansion coupled with weak downstream demand led to inventory accumulation and a decline in pricing. Towards the end of the year, raw material costs flattened and operating rates eased, prompting market participants to adopt a “stabilize pricing” mindset, and PBAT prices moved sideways with limited volatility.

Global Market Context and Policy Support

Globally, PBAT markets, including those in Europe and North America, showed relatively stable pricing in late 2025, supported by adequate supply levels, steady downstream demand from packaging and agricultural film sectors, and improving logistics conditions. In these regions, market negotiations were proceeding smoothly without sharp price fluctuations, and inventory levels remained balanced.

Industry research forecasts the global PBAT market value to grow from approximately USD 1.51 billion in 2025 to USD 2.76 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate of about 12.8%, driven by regulatory mandates on single-use plastics and increasing adoption of biodegradable alternatives.

Supply, Costs and Outlook

In China, production capacity continued to expand in 2025, resulting in increased overall output. Despite the rise in capacity, operating rates remained relatively low as producers adjusted production in response to inventory levels and demand conditions. Cost structures for PBAT production also experienced downward pressure over the year as raw material prices softened, slightly lowering theoretical production costs.

Looking ahead to 2026, PBAT prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels due to limited cost-side upside, ongoing inventory pressures and gradual downstream demand elasticity. While there is no strong signal for substantial price increases or declines in the short term, the long-term outlook is underpinned by expanding applications for biodegradable plastics, especially in regulatory-driven packaging and agricultural film segments.