Summary: The domestic chlor-alkali market shows a divergent pattern today. Influenced by international tensions and energy price fluctuations, Calcium Carbide prices continue to climb, and Caustic Soda Flakes remain active, while PVC is short-term weak due to falling futures.

1. Market Segment Analysis

1.1 Caustic Soda (Liquid & Flakes)

• Liquid Caustic Soda: Shipments remain stable as of March 11. Transaction centers in East China have shifted upward due to external market stimulus.

• Caustic Soda Flakes: Trading remains active, especially in export markets. Domestic enterprises report strong order books and zero inventory pressure. The reference price for solid caustic soda in China is approximately 3,388 RMB/ton (tax incl.).

1.2 Liquid Chlorine & Hydrochloric Acid

• Liquid Chlorine: Regional gains reported. Demand in Shandong and Jiangsu supports prices at high levels, with some increases of 50 RMB/ton.

• Hydrochloric Acid (HCl): Supply is expected to decrease due to upcoming maintenance in Shandong. Strong liquid chlorine trends have pushed HCl transaction centers higher, with prices expected between 1-250 RMB/ton.

1.3 Calcium Carbide & PVC

• Calcium Carbide (Surging): Ex-factory prices rose by 50 RMB/ton, and delivered prices increased by 100-150 RMB/ton. Unexpected shutdowns in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have tightened regional supply.

• PVC (Mixed Trend):  Carbide-based PVC: Weakened by the decline in $V2605$ futures. Reference range in East/South China: 5,050-5,250 RMB/ton. Ethylene-based PVC: Prices remain firm due to international oil price support. Reference range: 6,200-6,350 RMB/ton.

2. Macro & Geopolitical Insight

The conflict in the Middle East and the potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary drivers for energy-linked chemicals. High crude oil prices are providing a solid floor for Ethylene-based products, while supply chain disruptions are creating new opportunities for Chinese chemical exports.