Summary: In March 2026, influenced by international geopolitical tensions and global energy cost volatility, the domestic PVC Paste Resin market maintained a strong upward trajectory. Driven by firm cost support and localized supply contractions, transaction centers shifted upward throughout the month. Wuxi High Mountain provides a deep dive into this month’s supply-demand dynamics, raw material trends, and the outlook for April.

1. Market Overview: Significant Monthly Gains and Rising Price Centers

Throughout March (March 1–30, 2026), the domestic PVC Paste Resin market continued its bullish trend, with spot transactions often conducted on a flexible "case-by-case" negotiation basis.

According to industry tracking data, both major benchmarks saw substantial appreciation this month:

• Glove Grade Market: The average domestic price for glove grade resin reached 7,538 RMB/ton, an increase of 964 RMB/ton compared to last month’s average (6,574 RMB/ton), representing a gain of 14.66%.

• Leather Grade Market: The average domestic price for leather grade resin reached 7,475 RMB/ton, an increase of 942 RMB/ton compared to last month’s average (6,533 RMB/ton), a gain of 14.41%.

Market Drivers: The ongoing escalation of conflicts in the Middle East during March led to a global shortage of chemical feedstocks. Overseas plants reduced operating loads, resulting in tight supply and a significant "cost-push" effect. Domestic manufacturers relying on external raw materials faced mounting production pressure, forcing a broad adjustment of quotes. This provided a firm floor for the market, prompting calcium carbide-based producers to raise prices in tandem.

2. Deep Dive into Core Industrial Variables

Supply Side: Divergent Processes and Stable Operations The ex-factory price of VCM (Vinyl Chloride Monomer) in East China surged this month, breaking out of its previous low range. As of late March, ex-factory quotes were referenced around 6,550 RMB/ton. This forced ethylene-based producers relying on external monomer purchases to face escalating costs. Some enterprises, unable to withstand the margin compression, opted for early maintenance or reduced operating loads.

In contrast, calcium carbide-based producers maintained stable operations, with a slight trend toward inventory depletion. Overall, domestic production for March is estimated at approximately 98,600 tons, with an industry-wide operating rate of around 66%, keeping the total supply impact within a manageable range.

Demand Side: Driven by Essential Needs with Resistance to High Prices Although downstream operating rates recovered in March, procurement sentiment remained relatively tepid. Due to difficulties in passing on higher costs to finished goods, downstream manufacturers showed limited acceptance of high resin prices. Most buyers adhered to a "just-in-time" procurement strategy, resulting in overall soft demand.

Raw Material Side: Tight Supply and Firm Pricing The upstream sector was characterized by "tight supply and rising prices." Ethylene-based feedstock inventories remained under pressure, providing strong fundamental support for the recent price hikes initiated by resin manufacturers.

3. Regional Market Reference Prices (As of March 30)

As transaction prices are adjusted flexibly based on order volume, the following average prices (including tax and freight) are for reference only:

Glove Grade Market Trends:

• East China: Mainstream quotes referenced around 8,400 RMB/ton.

• South China: Mainstream quotes referenced around 8,450 RMB/ton.

• North China: Mainstream quotes referenced around 8,300 RMB/ton.

Leather Grade Market Trends:

• East China: Mainstream quotes referenced around 8,300 RMB/ton.

• South China: Mainstream quotes referenced around 8,400 RMB/ton.

• North China: Mainstream quotes referenced around 8,150 RMB/ton.

4. April Forecast: Continued Tug-of-War Between Costs and Demand

Looking ahead to April, the PVC Paste Resin market is expected to maintain a firm and slightly upward tone, with anticipated adjustments in the range of 100–200 RMB/ton.

• Supply Forecast: Given the lingering uncertainties in the international landscape, feedstock inventories may remain insufficient to support full capacity. We expect operating rates for ethylene-based units to decrease further in April, leading to a drop in output.

• Cost Forecast: Ex-factory prices for calcium carbide may trend downward, potentially easing the cost pressure for carbide-based producers. However, ethylene-based costs are expected to remain firmly supported with limited room for a pullback.

• Demand Forecast: April marks the seasonal peak for the chemical industry. While resistance to high prices persists, the frequency of essential restocking is expected to increase as downstream operating rates continue to climb.

HM Perspective: The market in April will remain sensitive to geopolitical disruptions. In the short term, the strong cost support from the production side will continue to drive price centers upward. However, due to the mismatch between downstream recovery speed and the pace of raw material increases, the market will enter a phase of intense negotiation. We advise partners to monitor ethylene feedstock arrivals closely and optimize procurement cycles to find the most balanced cost-efficiency point in this volatile environment.