Summary: In mid-April, the domestic chlor-alkali industrial chain exhibits a weak but steady operational trend. Impacted by soft downstream demand and elevated inventory levels, price centers for Liquid Caustic Soda, Calcium Carbide, and PVC have experienced varying degrees of downward adjustment. Wuxi High Mountain provides a deep dive into today’s supply-demand dynamics based on the latest industry tracking.

1. Caustic Soda Market: Regional Divergence and Flexible Adjustments

Liquid Caustic Soda: As of April 10, the domestic market remains soft, with price reductions observed in specific regions.

• North China: In the Dongying and Linyi areas of Shandong, some units have reduced operating loads. Despite this supply contraction, the market remains weak as alumina refineries maintain pressure on procurement prices, while non-alumina demand remains stagnant. Prices in the Binzhou area have seen minor downward adjustments.

• East & Southwest China: Demand in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is average. Due to sluggish shipments and rising inventory levels, there is a continued risk of downward price adjustments. In Guangxi, while alumina orders provide some support, the Guangdong market remains sluggish, prompting aggressive sales efforts from manufacturers.

• Central China: Procurement from alumina refineries remains tepid, and shipments from alkali plants are average, keeping the market in a "wait-and-see" state.

Flake Caustic Soda: Trading sentiment for flake caustic soda is expected to remain quiet today, with minor price pullbacks.

• Downstream procurement continues to adopt a cautious "wait-and-see" attitude, resulting in thin transaction volumes for new orders. As shipment rhythms slow down for major producers and intermediaries, inventory levels have risen compared to the previous period.

• Price Reference: The current domestic reference price for solid caustic soda is approximately 3,233 RMB/ton (tax inclusive, self-pickup).

2. Liquid Chlorine, Hydrochloric Acid, and Industrial Salt: Mixed Volatility

Liquid Chlorine: The domestic market shows a mix of gains and losses. In Liaocheng, Shandong, supply has decreased due to unit maintenance, leaving prices in a consolidation phase. Conversely, prices in Jiangsu and Hubei have decreased due to shipment pressures, while the Southern Jiangsu area saw a price increase of 50 RMB/ton supported by maintenance in neighboring regions.

Hydrochloric Acid: Supply and demand are expected to remain stable today. In Shandong, supply is projected to tighten due to scheduled maintenance on upstream units, potentially putting upward pressure on prices. While shipments remain smooth in Shanxi and Jiangsu, the Sichuan market is trending steadily lower due to a slower shipment rhythm.

Industrial Salt: The market for industrial salt remains stable.

• Well/Mineral Salt: Production has resumed at some units in Shaanxi and Hubei after maintenance. Regional supply is stable, with downstream users maintaining essential procurement.

• Sea Salt: The salt-harvesting season begins late this month, ensuring abundant supply. The current transaction price for salt used in soda ash production in Shandong is approximately 160–180 RMB/ton (tax inclusive, ex-factory).

3. Calcium Carbide and PVC: Under Pressure from Costs and High Inventory

Calcium Carbide: The market continues to trend downward today. In the Wuhai region of Ningxia, ex-factory prices were adjusted downward by 100 RMB/ton (reference price around 2,300–2,350 RMB/ton).

• Market Sentiment: Downstream arrival volumes remain high, leading to low procurement interest. Coupled with losses in the PVC sector, demand for calcium carbide has weakened further, pushing the market center downward.

PVC Market:

• Carbide-based PVC: The market is largely stable with minor fluctuations, though spot transaction centers remain low. Futures prices continue to drift downward, making downstream buyers cautious. With high social inventory and ample supply, prices in East/South China are expected to fluctuate between 5,000–5,200 RMB/ton.

• Ethylene-based PVC: Trends remain relatively stable with flexible corporate quotes. Operating rates are maintained at approximately 61.04%, with no significant supply pressure. Downstream procurement remains focused on immediate needs, with transaction prices ranging between 7,000–7,550 RMB/ton.

4. HM Perspective: Risk Management and Strategic Advice

Wuxi High Mountain analyzes that the chlor-alkali industry is currently facing a phase of "stable supply vs. lower-than-expected demand."

Recommendations for Partners:

1. Monitor Maintenance Cycles: Scheduled maintenance in Shandong and Shaanxi will disrupt the local supply of Liquid Chlorine and Hydrochloric Acid. We advise procurement teams to plan ahead.

2. Prudent PVC Inventory Management: Given the persistently high social inventory and weakening cost support from calcium carbide, we recommend downstream manufacturers maintain a "just-in-time" procurement strategy.

3. Optimize Regional Logistics: As liquid caustic soda prices shift regionally, logistics flows may change. Optimizing transportation schedules can help offset the risks of price volatility.