NAV

1. Market Overview: Persistent Downward Shift in Price Centers

For the week of May 9 to May 14, 2026, the domestic PVC Paste Resin market continued its downward trajectory. Under the heavy suppression of weak demand, the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified, leading to sluggish transaction activity.

According to the latest monitoring data:

• Leather-Grade Resin: The average market price fell to 6,878 RMB/ton, a decrease of 262 RMB/ton (-3.67%) from last week.

• Glove-Grade Resin: The average market price dropped to 6,988 RMB/ton, down by 252 RMB/ton (-3.48%) compared to the previous week.

Due to poor shipment circulation and accumulating inventory pressure, mainstream factory quotes were lowered by 200–300 RMB/ton during the week. Despite manufacturers' willingness to negotiate on actual orders, downstream buyers remain resistant to current price levels, preventing any significant recovery in transaction volumes.

2. Core Market Dimensions Analysis

1. Supply Side: Rising Operating Rates and Ample Stock The overall industry operating rate rose to 63.98% this week, with an operational capacity of 1.136 million tons. Following the resumption of production at facilities in Northeast China, the estimated weekly output increased to 21,800 tons. This continued growth in supply has ensured that spot availability in the market remains more than sufficient.

2. Cost Side: Divergent Costs and Narrowing Profit Margins

   • Ethylene-Based: The ex-factory price for VCM was lowered by 100 RMB/ton (with East China tax-inclusive cash quotes at approximately 5,500 RMB/ton). While cost pressure has eased slightly, profit margins for these producers remain in the negative.

   • Carbide-Based: Prices in the calcium carbide market edged slightly higher, increasing production costs. Although profit levels for carbide-based producers remain acceptable, overall industry profitability has narrowed once again.

3. Demand Side: Multi-Factor Constraints and Weak Sentiment High prices for plasticizers continue to dampen the enthusiasm of downstream product manufacturers. Coupled with a lack of active procurement from terminal users, finished product inventories are accumulating. This persistent weakness in demand suggests a difficult recovery in the near term.

3. Forecast: Bearish Sentiment Dominates the Outlook

Based on fundamental analysis, Wuxi High Mountain Hi-tech Development Co., Ltd. anticipates the following for the coming week:

• Supply Outlook: No new maintenance plans are scheduled for next week. Operating rates will remain at normal levels, and the state of oversupply is expected to persist.

• Raw Material Trends: Support from the calcium carbide market is expected to be limited. A weakening price trend in raw materials may further erode market confidence.

• Demand Sentiment: Downstream procurement will likely remain restricted to "hand-to-mouth" replenishments, with a clear intent to push for lower prices.

Conclusion: With the combination of oversupply, high inventory, and stagnant demand, the market is currently dominated by bearish factors. We expect the PVC Paste Resin market to continue its downward correction next week, with a projected price adjustment in the range of 100–200 RMB/ton.