NAV

Summary: During the week of March 20–26, 2026, the domestic Monochloroacetic Acid (MCAA) market experienced a broad upward movement, driven by sustained favorable conditions on the cost side. With the continuous rise in raw material prices, manufacturers have shown a strong inclination to adjust quotes upward. Wuxi High Mountain provides a detailed analysis of this week’s supply-demand dynamics and cost structures to navigate the current market logic.

1. Market Overview: Significant Upward Shift in Price Center

The domestic MCAA market entered a bullish phase this week, with price fluctuations expanding compared to the previous period.

According to industry monitoring data as of March 26:

• Average Market Price: The domestic MCAA price reached an average of 3,360 RMB/ton.

• Weekly Change: This represents an increase of 160 RMB/ton compared to last Thursday’s average (3,200 RMB/ton), a significant gain of 5.00% within a single week.

Market Logic: The primary driver for this upward momentum lies in "cost-side premiums." Throughout the week, influenced by global energy price trends, the prices of core raw materials—Acetic Acid and Liquid Chlorine—both trended higher. Consequently, production enterprises faced escalating cost pressures. To balance profit margins, mainstream domestic manufacturers actively pushed for higher quotes, leading to a steady elevation of the market transaction center.

2. Deep Dive into Core Industrial Variables

Supply Side: Stable Operations with Slight Capacity Increases

Domestic MCAA production units maintained steady operations this week:

• Regional Performance: In Shandong province, several key enterprises increased their operating loads to meet the rise in market inquiries, resulting in a slight growth in regional supply.

• Overall Supply: Despite the increase in output, the majority of manufacturers focused on fulfilling previous contracts and export orders. As a result, the pressure on spot market supply remained manageable, maintaining a relative balance between supply and demand.

Demand Side: Consistent Performance with Seasonal Recovery Expectations

The downstream consumption market remained relatively stable this week without drastic fluctuations:

• Industry Status: Operating rates in downstream sectors such as pesticides, pharmaceutical intermediates, and fine chemicals remained steady, with procurement following a "need-based" rhythm.

• Future Outlook: With the peak spring farming season and seasonal demand cycles approaching, consumption of MCAA by the pesticide industry is expected to increase gradually, providing a solid foundation for future demand support.

Cost Side: Dual Support Building a Strong Price Floor

The cost side was the absolute core driver of price hikes this week:

• Acetic Acid: The Acetic Acid market continued to strengthen this week, operating at stage-high levels. Given its high weight in MCAA production, the price jump directly raised the cost baseline for MCAA.

• Liquid Chlorine: Liquid Chlorine prices also remained active and maintained an upward trend.

• Comprehensive Assessment: The sustained favorable signals from the raw material end significantly bolstered manufacturers' confidence, leading to a full release of upward pricing sentiment during the week.

3. Regional Transaction Price Details (Reference as of March 26)

The actual transaction centers for Flake MCAA in major domestic production areas are as follows:

• Shandong Region: Active market trading with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 3,350 to 3,600 RMB/ton.

• Henan Region: Firm quotes from manufacturers with mainstream transaction prices between 3,300 and 3,500 RMB/ton.

• Shanxi Region: Influenced by regional logistics and production process differences, mainstream transaction prices are referenced at 3,150 to 3,250 RMB/ton.

• Hubei Region: Concentrated market resources with mainstream transaction prices referenced at 3,600 to 3,700 RMB/ton.

4. Market Forecast and HM Strategic Advice

Looking ahead to this week (late March to early April), the MCAA market is expected to maintain a firm and fluctuating upward tone.

• Supply Forecast: Domestic MCAA operating loads are expected to remain stable with no large-scale maintenance plans, resulting in consistent output.

• Demand Forecast: Benefiting from the seasonal recovery of the pesticide and downstream industries, restocking demand is likely to be released gradually, providing strong support for market transactions.

• Cost Forecast: While Liquid Chlorine prices may face a slight downward correction risk after recent gains, Acetic Acid prices are expected to remain at elevated levels. Overall, the supportive role of the cost side remains intact.

Comprehensive Prediction: In the short term, the market still possesses upward potential. We anticipate the MCAA price range for next week to adjust between 3,300 and 3,450 RMB/ton.

HM Perspective: Given the current cost volatility, we advise partners to closely monitor the real-time price dynamics of raw material Acetic Acid. For downstream manufacturers, aligning procurement cycles with seasonal recovery expectations and maintaining moderate inventory levels is a sound strategy to manage short-term price fluctuations.