NAV

Release Date: April 2, 2026

Summary: Entering early April, the domestic chlor-alkali industrial chain remains generally stable, though price trends are diverging due to varying downstream demand cycles and regional supply differences. While the Liquid Caustic Soda market is in a negotiation phase, and Liquid Chlorine and Hydrochloric Acid maintain stability, the Calcium Carbide and PVC markets are facing downward pressure. Wuxi High Mountain summarizes the core dynamics of the industrial chain for today.

1. Caustic Soda (Liquid & Flake): Regional Adjustments and Cautious Trading

Liquid Caustic Soda: As of April 2, the 32% liquid caustic soda market remains largely stable.

• North China: High-concentration alkali (48-50%) in Shandong and Hebei saw price adjustments downward by 50 RMB/ton due to inventory pressures. Conversely, demand for low-concentration alkali remains stable with no significant inventory pressure for manufacturers.

• South & Southwest China: In Guangxi, the 100% basis contract price for April rose by approximately 450 RMB/ton, which may provide benchmark support for pricing in Shanxi and surrounding regions. In Guangdong, market sentiment remains calm despite reductions in local chlor-alkali unit output.

• Northeast & Central China: Supply and demand remain balanced, with ex-factory pressures under control and operations running smoothly.

Flake Caustic Soda: Domestic flake caustic soda markets are prioritizing active shipments today. Currently, some new order quotes in the Northwest remain unconfirmed. Due to persistent soft demand in the caustic soda market, downstream procurement remains cautious with quiet trading for new orders. Manufacturers and intermediaries are eager to secure orders, leading to expected flexible downward adjustments in new quotes. The current reference price for solid caustic soda in China is approximately 3,462 RMB/ton (tax inclusive).

2. Liquid Chlorine, Hydrochloric Acid, and Industrial Salt: Stable Operations

Liquid Chlorine: The domestic liquid chlorine market continues to operate steadily. In Shandong, chlor-alkali enterprises maintain stable operating loads. Following recent broad price reductions, downstream acceptance has improved, leading to stable transactions. In East China and Zhejiang, supply disruptions remain limited despite some downstream unit maintenance, keeping the market under steady pressure.

Hydrochloric Acid: The hydrochloric acid market center is expected to remain stable today. In the Zaozhuang area of Shandong, local sentiment has warmed slightly due to tight supply. In Hubei and Hunan, units are operating steadily, but spot availability remains tight, prompting manufacturers to focus on stable-price shipments. In Sichuan, procurement from the downstream oil extraction industry provides solid support for steady shipment rhythms.

Industrial Salt: The market for industrial salt remains stable.

• Well/Mineral Salt: Most enterprises are producing normally. One enterprise in Shaanxi plans a one-week maintenance shutdown, which is expected to reduce regional supply.

• Sea Salt: This month marks the beginning of the first salt-harvesting season. Supply is abundant, and downstream users are maintaining procurement based on essential needs.

3. Calcium Carbide and PVC: Weakened Trends Due to Demand and Inventory

Calcium Carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is trending lower today. In the Wuhai region of Ningxia, ex-factory prices were adjusted downward by 50 RMB/ton (contract price around 2,700 RMB/ton).

• Supply Side: Supply is gradually increasing, leading to more waiting vehicles at downstream factories.

• Sentiment: Influenced by the downward trend in PVC and caustic soda markets, the willingness of downstream traders and manufacturers to stock up has weakened. A "buy-on-the-dip" psychological expectation is emerging, suggesting continued downward pressure in the short term.

PVC Market:

• Carbide-based PVC: The market continues to soften. Weak trends in futures night trading have dragged down spot transaction centers. Social inventories remain at high levels, and downstream product manufacturers show average interest in new orders. Prices for carbide-based PVC in East/South China are expected to fluctuate between 5,100–5,200 RMB/ton (tax inclusive, self-pickup).

• Ethylene-based PVC: Trends are slightly weak. Corporate quotes are adjusted flexibly, with export orders already booked through early April. Operating rates are maintained at approximately 61.29%, with steady supply and "just-in-time" downstream procurement.

4. HM Perspective: Strategic Advice for Early April

Wuxi High Mountain analyzes that the chlor-alkali market is currently in a phase of tug-of-war between seasonal demand release and increased supply.

Our Observations & Advice:

1. Monitor Cost Fluctuations: The decline in Calcium Carbide prices may further weaken price support for PVC. For export orders, pay close attention to the linkage between export quotes and domestic spot prices.

2. Navigate Regional Differences: Significant differences exist between the North and South caustic soda markets. Cross-regional logistics must be calculated precisely to manage the balance between the upward expectations in the South and inventory pressures in the North.

3. Optimize Inventory Management: Given the slow recovery of demand for Flake Caustic Soda and PVC, we recommend that partners maintain a rational turnover and avoid stockpiling at current levels.